Charts & Returns That Stood Out in 2022

Happy New Year!

I hope you all had the chance to take a break from your usual routines and spend time with loved ones during the holidays. I haven't been as active in sharing information or trading recently because I was visiting family and friends out of town, but I'm looking forward to a fresh start this week.

As we start the new year, there will be plenty of predictions and forecasts from analysts and experts. While it's important to consider these forecasts, it's also important to keep in mind that accurately predicting market direction is just one part of the equation. Actually making money from those predictions is a different challenge altogether. That being said, this is a good twitter thread that contains links to macro forecasts from some of the largest financial institutions, which could be worth checking out for those that are interested.

2022 was a not a good year for stocks with the S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 2000, and TSX all finishing lower on the year. 

I wanted to share with you what stood out in 2022. Will these trends continue? Or, will we see new trends emerge?

Investor Sentiment: It was extremely bearish all year long and continues to be today.

 

60/40 Portfolio: The 60/40 stock/bond portfolio took it on the chin and had the worst year to date performance in 100 years. 😳

Bonds: It was one of the worst years on record for bonds with TLT (10-Year Treasury Bond ETF) trading lower by more than 30%.

Interest Rates: TNX (10-Year Treasury Note Yield) saw one of the fastest rate of change in years with an increase of more than 150%.

US Dollar/US Dollar Index: Was unstoppable for most of last year rallying 20% but gave some back toward the end of the year finishing higher by 8%.

Bitcoin: Love it or hate it, last year was not kind to Bitcoin as it lost more than 60% of it's value against the US dollar.

NASDAQ 100: NDX was down more than 30%.

ARKK/Innovation: A very popular ETF among retail investors from 2020/21 finished lower by 67%.

Chinese Tech Stocks: At their worst they traded lower by more than 50% but staged a big rally late last year to finish down less than 20%.

Canadian Oil & Gas Stocks: A bright spot in a market full of steep declines. XEG.TO (TSX Energy ETF) finished the year below it's high but up close to 50%.

US Oil & Energy Stocks: XOP (Oil Exploration & Production ETF) Finished the year higher by more than 40%.

US Energy Service Stocks: OIH (Oil Service ETF) came on strong into year end finishing higher by more than 65%.

Coal: Yes, coal. BTU (Peabody Energy Corp) finished the year higher by more than 150%.

What do you think? More of the same this year? Will the trends from 2022 carry over in 2023? And if so, for how long? 

Let us know what you think.

Thanks for reading. And all the best in 2023!

GR

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